Posted in Guides November 16, 2019
All About Poker Odds
Poker is a game that involves probability and statistics. Even if you are not a math expert, you can still grasp the basic concepts with practice and experience. In fact, some of the best poker players in history started with a strong foundation of these principles.
Poker odds are the chances of winning a hand based on your cards, table cards, and call position. To determine this, you need to understand the concept of poker “outs”, which are cards that can help improve your hand in comparison to your opponents.
For example, let’s say you have Q-9, and the dealer puts down A-K-7-4. To win, you need heart cards such as J-9, 10-5, 7-3, or 6-4-2. There are 13 cards in each suit, and four of those are on the table (two from the dealer and two of yours). Therefore, there are nine hearts left which are your “outs”.
Using this information and the total number of cards in the deck (52) – with two hearts in your hand and two on the table – there are 46 cards left in the deck, 37 cards will make you lose and 9 will make you win. This means that your odds of getting the winning card are 37 to 9, or 4:1. Thus, you have a 20% chance of winning.
Now, the question is, are these good enough odds to wager your money? The answer lies in a risk/reward analysis. If your potential winnings are not significant, then passing is the better option. But if the opponent’s bet is small, you can call the bet and see the river card to increase your odds. For instance, if the opponent bets $10, and the pot is worth $90, then the pot becomes $100. This increases your chance of winning to 10:1 ($10 to make for every $1). The decision to continue playing or not is determined by the magnitude of the risk versus the potential pay-out.
To calculate your odds and outs, you can use a simple rule of thumb. After the flop (the first three cards dealt on the table), figure out the if the number of outs left in the deck. Multiply the outs by four for your odds of being dealt a winning card on the turn or river. After the turn (fourth card dealt), multiply the number of outs by two to determine your chances of getting that card in the river.
This guide also includes commonly used poker hand odds, such as open-ended straight draws, four to a flush, inside straight draws, one pair drawing to two pairs or trips, overcards on a ragged board on the turn, and drawing to a set. By mastering these basic concepts and applying them consistently, new and experienced players can gain a strategic advantage in poker games. However, it’s essential to keep in mind that video poker strategy will be different, as the odds work differently.
